Given the fire progression (see map 4) and the general wind speeds/direction, the likelihood that the fire cast a spot more than a ¼ mile perpendicular to the major runs during the evening of the 20th and morning of the 21st would be minimal…this was modeled using fire behavior software BehavePlus. This combined with the fact that the "spot" was not noticed by aerial reconnaissance might lead one to propose the hypothesis that the "spot" wasn't a true spot but a holdover lightning strike. The significance of the difference between a "spot" and a "holdover lightning strike" is that firefighters, even today, typically look for spots either close to the fireline and/or downwind in the direction of the smoke column. Burning embers typically are found in the direction of the smoke column. A "holdover lightning strike" could be anywhere. In this case below the existing fireline and most likely out of the path of any smoke column from the previous 24 hours.